BC3 Seminars: Global fishery futures under contrasting management regimes and climate change

BC3 Seminars
“Global fishery futures under contrasting management regimes and climate change”

Prof. Christopher Costello
Bren School of Environmental Science & Management

Abstract

Data from 4,713 fisheries worldwide, representing 78% of global reported fish catch, are analyzed to estimate the status, trends, and benefits of alternative approaches to recovering depleted fisheries. For each fishery, we estimate current biological status and forecast the impacts of contrasting management regimes on catch, profit, and biomass of fish in the sea. Our business-as-usual scenario projects divergence and continued collapse for many of the world’s fisheries. Applying sound management reforms to global fisheries in our dataset could generate annual increases exceeding 16 MMT in catch, $53 Billion in profit, and 619 MMT in biomass relative to business as usual. We also find that with appropriate reforms, recovery can happen quickly, with the median fishery taking under 10 years to reach recovery targets. Our results show that common-sense reforms to fishery management would dramatically improve overall fish abundance while increasing food security and profits. We also examine the effects of climate change on global fisheries and what can be done to protect vulnerable stocks.

Lecturer

Christopher Costello, Professor — Resource EconomicsPhD, Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley; MS, Agricultural & Resource Economics, Oregon State University; BS, Environmental Economics & Policy, UC Berkeley

While there is broad agreement that resources are valuable and need to be used wisely and sustainably, there is less agreement on the definitions of such terms as “wisely” and “sustainable,” meanings that evolve within the context of identifying society’s objectives and creating the mechanisms and policies to achieve them. Professor Costello works in this area, focusing on the economics of environmental regulation and natural-resource management under conditions of uncertainty (inaccurate, unavailable, or contradictory information), with a particular emphasis on the value and effect of information on management decisions. Correlate to this is his interest in adaptive-management programs that have a learning component intended to resolve uncertainty. He has applied this perspective to studies in biological diversity, introduced species, regulation of polluting industries, and marine policy.