BC3 Seminars: A Novel Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling and its Application to Sustainability

BC3 Seminars
“A Novel Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling and its Application to Sustainability”

Koji Tokimatsu
Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Technology Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech), Japan

Abstract

Sustainability or sustainable development is one of greatest and common concerns in various fields. A so-called integrated assessment model developed by the speaker addressing to illustrate future paths of various kinds of sustainability indicators. Examples of the indicators treated in this model are Genuine Savings (or Inclusive Wealth) based on “weak sustainability” idea which is the main focus of this talk, while human appropriations of net primary productivity (HANPP) which can be considered as a proxy of “strong sustainability”. The model is based on Ramsey model (famous for DICE/RICE model by prof. W.D. Nordhaus in Yale university), incorporating three resources balance models for energy, mineral, and biomass, and an impact assessment model based on damage function approach (similar to the Extern E study but based on Japanese situation). The talk also includes how the paths are changed by income elasticity of “benefit transfer” used for the impact assessment model, whose valuation of environmental impact is based on conjoint analysis via social survey. The presenter and his co-workers carried out social surveys within recent few years in some 30 cities in G20 countries and in Asian countries. Simulation results incorporating the both signs of the elasticity as well as value transfer functions will also be provided.