BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: An early warning system for desertification (POSTPONED)

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars
“An early warning system for desertification.“

Dr. Javier Ibáñez Puerta
Dpto de Estadística y métodos de gestión en agricultura, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

Dr. Jaime Martínez Valderrama
Estacion Experimental Zonas Aridas, CSIC

Abstract

Models to study desertification and models to study climate change share a remarkable, common feature: they represent systems whose states will undergo a profound structural change in the long term.

This feature is challenging since it means that historical information is insufficient to formalize and validate the models.

In the seminar we will explain how this difficulty is dealt with in a group of dynamic models aimed at assessing desertification risks, estimating times until desertification and ranking potential degradation factors in order of importance. Briefly, models achieve plausibility, despite the lacks of information, because they form a fully coherent structure of equations ensuring that no impossible or inconsistent result will be yielded.

We will also outline the multidisciplinary structure of the models, stressing how biophysical processes are intermingled with stakeholders’ economic and managerial behavior.

Finally, the procedures for assessing the risk of desertification will be presented. They employ the results got by running the model under many different scenarios to carry out stability.