BC3 Seminars: Deep ice core drilling, polar ice-sheet flow and its implications for climate change

Prof. Kumiko Goto-Azuma
National Institute of Polar Research, Tokyo, Japan

Ice cores provide not only palaeoclimate information on timescales from decades to hundreds of millennia, but also very important information on ice sheets dynamics that shows how fast the ice sheets flow. To understand the physical and mechanical properties of ice-sheet ice is of vital importance to predict the future ice sheet behavior due to the global warming. During the past two decades, several deep ice drilling projects have been conducted in Greenland and Antarctica. In Greenland the international projects recovered four deep ice cores at GRIP, GISP2, NGRIP and NEEM sites. In Antarctica ten deep ice cores were recovered which include Dome C, EPICA-Dronning Maud Land, and Dome Fuji cores. These ice cores show how closely climate and greenhouse gas concentrations were linked in the past, and demonstrate that very abrupt climate switches can occur. With the completion of major projects in Greenland and Antarctica, the international ice coring community is planning for the next few decades to obtain the oldest ice which goes back to 1.5 million years ago.

Japan has been collaborating with over 20 years on development of drilling techniques, logistics and physics and chemistry analyses of ice cores in Greenland and Antarctica. In this talk I will introduce the history of international drilling projects and some of the major scientific results relevant to ice sheet dynamics.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: The “slash-and-burn” solution to climate change

Jacob Phelps
National University of Singapore

Swidden agricultural systems, also known as "slash-and-burn" farming, have been long been targeted (vilified, criminalised) as leading causes of tropical deforestation. Indeed, they are important drivers of deforestation and conspicuous points of carbon emissions. This is well reflected in contemporary policies to reduce emissions from the forest sector; policy makers across the tropics have proposed that carbon finance could provide incentives for forest frontier communities to transition away from swidden agriculture to other systems that potentially reduce emissions and/or increase carbon sequestration. Plans for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) in a number of countries currently feature interventions to replace swidden agriculture, though outcomes are uncertain. This talk will consider the scenarios under which eliminating swidden agriculture might produce positive, long-term carbon benefits, by posing two questions:
1) Will replacing swidden with other agricultural systems provide direct carbon benefits?
2) Will replacing swidden with other agricultural systems result in land sparing for conservation?
Reviewing the relationships between "slash and burn" agriculture and incipient REDD+ policies, this talk will discuss the need for a more data-based and long-term approach to managing forest carbon stocks.

Workshop on Environmental Justice and PES

The Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) is organizing a workshop focused on Environmental Justice and Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES). This workshop is framed within the project ECOFINDERS , funded by the European Commission under FP-VII. The aim of this project is to support European Union soil policy making by providing the necessary tools to design and implement strategies for sustainable use of soils (further information at http://ecofinders.dmu.dk or http://www.bc3research.org/research/ecofinders.html ).

The workshop that will take place in Murua (Araba) from the 19th to the 21st of September will be focused on offering new insights about the challenges that are embedded in the design of novel financial mechanisms that are socially legitimate and fair in the quest for optimizing and devising a sustainable future of our basic resource base. With this objective the workshop will put together international experts with contrasted experience worldwide.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Theoretical issues and operational challenges in ecosystem services valuation

Dr. Erik Gómez-Baggethun
Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona)

We identify theoretical issues and operational challenges for current efforts to incorporate the value of ecosystem services in economic planning and decision making. Operational challenges addressed include 1) double counting, 2) non-linear dynamics. First, double counting problems emerge from the synergies and trade-offs in ecosystem services delivery. Substantial problems result from the attempt of extrapolating accounting models designed for economic goods to complex interrelated systems of ecosystem functions. We stress the limits that accounting models are meeting in their quest to develop ‘well defined ecosystem service units’ by artificially treating as discrete items what in reality are overlapping ecological processes. It is argued that the focus should shift from efforts to define single ecosystem services to ecosystem service bundles produced by service providing units with ecologically consistent boundaries. Second, conventional economic valuation bas ed on marginal analysis is misleading when ecosystems are close to thresholds and small changes may lead to abrupt loss of ecosystem services. It is suggested that in such situations information guiding ecosystem service management should move from monetary values to early warning signals based on biophysical indicators. Two theoretical issues are raised: 1) value incommensurability, 2) com-modification. The notion of value incommensurability, that is, the idea that the distinct value dimensions involved in ecosystem valuation may not be reduced to a single measurement unit, e.g. money, energy, land, or labor. The idea that failure to preserve ecosystem services can be tackled through their pricing and articulation through markets is discussed critically in the light of this theoretical stand. It is argued that, whereas money has become the hegemonic valuation language, decision making in ecosystem services management entails dealing with conflicting and often irreducible values. C losely related to this issue, the second issue relates to com-modification. The emphasis is put in the loss of information that results from masking diverse ecological processes behind the homogeneity of monetary figures, and the changes that result in human-nature relations. It is argued that if the perception of ecological elements and processes as exchange values becomes normalized, ecosystem functions lacking direct economic value may tend to become invisible in decision making. The last section of the paper discusses implications of the above identified issues for ecosystems services science and related design of environmental policy instruments.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Valuing the Water Purification/Filtration Service of Temperate Coastal Rainforests in Southwestern British Columbia: A Stochastic Production Function Approach

Dr. Duncan Knowler
Simon Fraser University jointly with Ashley Page

In many biodiversity rich forest areas, a lack of understanding exists concerning the tradeoffs between timber harvesting and maintaining ecosystem services, where losses of these services can occur as externalities from the timber harvest. Since these relationships are influenced by rainfall regime, it can be expected that knowledge of the tradeoffs can provide important information on the impacts of climate change. This study provides insight into such tradeoffs by estimating the value of a change in a forests water purification/filtration service in British Columbia (Canada), focusing on the improvement in the quality of water as the management emphasis shifts from timber harvesting to conservation for drinking water supply. We use an integrated economic-ecological model to quantify the economic impact of reduced forest road induced sedimentation on raw water quality prior to its arrival at a municipal water treatment plant. With respect to road-induced sedimentation, we consider traffic volume and aggregate road length. We find that the economic value of the water purification/filtration service is not as sensitive to traffic volume as it is to the aggregate road length. Our analysis will be helpful to forest planners who must consider the tradeoffs in forest management when timber harvesting can have harmful impacts on important ecosystem services, such as water purification/filtration.

BC3 Seminars: From Theory to Practice: The Science and Field Implementation of Ecosystem Services

Dr. Rosimeiry Portela
Conservation International (CI)
Ecological Economist/Senior Director in the Global Change and Ecosystem Services group of the Science + Knowledge Division

Dr. Rosimeiry Portela is an Ecological Economist/Senior Director in the Global Change and Ecosystem Services group of the Science + Knowledge Division at Conservation International (CI). She leads a small team of researchers working on a variety of biophysical and economics modeling techniques to estimate the provision, benefits and values of ecosystem services at multiple scales and across terrestrial and marine biomes. Working in collaboration with several CI Divisions, Field Offices and external research partners, every effort is made to ensure her scientific work on ecosystem services is policy and field-relevant.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Large Scale Integration of Renewables in Power Systems: Flexibility Assessment and Market Rules Design

Fernando de Sisternes
PhD Candidate, Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Large scale deployment of renewable electricity generation is gradually changing the operational regime of the existing electricity generation portfolio to make generation meet demand instantaneously. Additionally, increasing shares of renewables will require the deployment of new elements in the power system (storage, interconnections, etc) that help balance the intrinsic variability of these variable energy resources (VERs).
This presentation will focus on the mid-term challenges of a large integration of VERs in power systems. It will give an overview of the main impacts of VERs on thermal generators and describe a modeling approach capable of assessing the performance of various market rules aimed at mitigating these effects.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: An early warning system for desertification (POSTPONED)

Dr. Javier Ibáñez Puerta
Dpto de Estadística y métodos de gestión en agricultura, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid

Dr. Jaime Martínez Valderrama
Estacion Experimental Zonas Aridas, CSIC

Models to study desertification and models to study climate change share a remarkable, common feature: they represent systems whose states will undergo a profound structural change in the long term.

This feature is challenging since it means that historical information is insufficient to formalize and validate the models.

In the seminar we will explain how this difficulty is dealt with in a group of dynamic models aimed at assessing desertification risks, estimating times until desertification and ranking potential degradation factors in order of importance. Briefly, models achieve plausibility, despite the lacks of information, because they form a fully coherent structure of equations ensuring that no impossible or inconsistent result will be yielded.

We will also outline the multidisciplinary structure of the models, stressing how biophysical processes are intermingled with stakeholders' economic and managerial behavior.

Finally, the procedures for assessing the risk of desertification will be presented. They employ the results got by running the model under many different scenarios to carry out stability.