BC3 Seminars: A Novel Approach to Integrated Assessment Modelling and its Application to Sustainability
Koji Tokimatsu
Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Science and Technology Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Science and Engineering Tokyo Institute of Technology (Tokyo Tech), Japan
Sustainability or sustainable development is one of greatest and common concerns in various fields. A so-called integrated assessment model developed by the speaker addressing to illustrate future paths of various kinds of sustainability indicators. Examples of the indicators treated in this model are Genuine Savings (or Inclusive Wealth) based on “weak sustainability” idea which is the main focus of this talk, while human appropriations of net primary productivity (HANPP) which can be considered as a proxy of “strong sustainability”. The model is based on Ramsey model (famous for DICE/RICE model by prof. W.D. Nordhaus in Yale university), incorporating three resources balance models for energy, mineral, and biomass, and an impact assessment model based on damage function approach (similar to the Extern E study but based on Japanese situation). The talk also includes how the paths are changed by income elasticity of “benefit transfer” used for the impact assessment model, whose valuation of environmental impact is based on conjoint analysis via social survey. The presenter and his co-workers carried out social surveys within recent few years in some 30 cities in G20 countries and in Asian countries. Simulation results incorporating the both signs of the elasticity as well as value transfer functions will also be provided.
Gizarte Foroa. Klima Aldaketaren 2050erako EAE-ko Estrategi
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, SpainHartu parte 2050erako klima-aldaketaren Euskadiko estrategia prestatzen
Eusko Jaurlaritzak, Ingurumen eta Lurralde Politika Sailaren bidez, 2050erako klima-aldaketaren Euskadiko estrategia prestatzen ari da. Ingurumenaren erronka garrantzitsu honi aurre egiteko, Eusko Jaurlaritzak Euskadiko gizarteak (enpresak, klusterrak, elkarteak, ikerketa zentroak, etab.) dokumentuari egin diezazkioketen ekarpenak bildu nahi ditu. Hala, datorren asteazkenean, martxoak 25, eragile ekonomikoek, sozialek eta politikoek parte hartzeko saio bat izango da.
BC3 Spring University of Ecosystem Services Modeling (3rd edition), 2015
The Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) in collaboration with Conservation International, the University of Vermont and Earth Economics, is announcing the 2015 edition of the International Spring University on Ecosystem Services Modeling.
The International Spring University on Ecosystem Services (ES) Modeling is the third edition of an annual 2-week intensive course that aims to build a new generation of actors, in research, policy and management, who can profitably use ecosystem services models to address and solve sustainability problems.
BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Species interaction networks, global change and restoration
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, SpainDr. Daniel Montoya
Life Sciences Building, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom.
Network perspectives of biological communities are increasingly recognised as an important tool for guiding conservation policies. The reason for this is that network properties underpin many aspects of the structure and stability of biological communities, as well as the provision of fundamental ecosystem functions and services such as pollination, decomposition, biomass production, pest control, and water regulation. In this talk I will use a food web approach to address several aspects of the structure, stability and dynamics of complex biological communities. I will also present ongoing research exploring the effects of climate change in food webs, as well as examples of how species interaction networks approaches can be applied in restoration ecology.
BC3 Seminars: Global past climate changes and their regional impact
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, SpainProf. Maria Fernanda Sanchez- Goñi.
Professor at the Ecole Pratique des Hautes Etudes, CNRS-University of Bordeaux (France)
Geological archives show that during the last million years, the Earth’s climate underwent repeated changes between glacial (cold) and interglacial (warm) periods approximately every 41,000 or 100,000 years, with the present-day interglacial starting 12,000 years ago. These orbitally-induced glacial-interglacial cycles were punctuated by millennial-scale climatic variability. During the last glacial period (~100,000-15,000 years ago), the amplitude of the warming events in Greenland, Dansgaard-Oeshger (D-O) events, oscillated between 6 and 16°C, and occurred in few decades. In the North Atlantic huge freshwater pulses triggered by the fragmentation of the North American ice caps, the so-called Heinrich events, lead to abrupt sea surface cooling, changes in deep water conditions and open vegetation expansion in Europe. Both D-O and Heinrich events were associated with changes in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, rapid temperature changes in Antarctica and had a global impact as observed in the CO2 and CH4 concentration records. Since the identification of the rapid climatic variability a number of questions however remain still open such as its regional impact, the oceanic and atmospheric processes underlying this variability and how other forcing such as the orbital parameters modulate the amplitude of this variability.
BC3 Seminars: David M. McEvoy, “Effective Climate Agreements under Uncertainty”
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, SpainMeaningful international cooperation on climate change requires countries to overcome a social dilemma; collectively, countries are better off reducing greenhouse-gas emissions, but individually they are better off increasing their emissions. An effective climate agreement must motivate sovereign countries to both voluntarily agree to reduce their emissions and then comply with their commitments. Moreover, this must take place under a great deal of uncertainty regarding the damages from climate change. Our existing institutions designed to manage climate change have failed. Here we use experimental methods to test a climate agreement structure that, in theory, encourages meaningful participation and compliance. One of the defining features of the agreement is that it requires members to pay refundable deposits upon ratification. Our results show that this agreement structure can be successful at significantly reducing emissions. Most importantly, the agreement remains highly effective even in the face of uncertainty regarding the damages from a changing climate. Our results suggest that making ex ante deposits, even relatively small ones, serves as a coordination device that allows countries to achieve meaningful climate cooperation.
DECCMA Northern Team Meeting
During the 18th and the 2oth of 0 May 2015, the Northern Team of DECCMA (DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change; Migration as an Adaptation) research project, are meeting in Bilbao at the Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3).
20 scientific experts will be discussing the key research decisions of the projects and will cover the updates on WP activities carried out and future planning.
BC3 Seminars: Climate change during the Collapse of the Maya Civilization: No hurricanes?…bad news!
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, SpainProf. Martin Andres Medina Elizalde
Assistant Professor Geology Department, Amherst College (USA).
In light of their power and precipitation fluxes, tropical storms and particularly hurricanes are agents of significant societal stress. Cyclone precipitation fluxes, conversely, could play a positive societal and environmental role during times and locations with a tendency towards dryness. New evidence from speleothems suggests that shifts in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms explain precipitation variability in the Yucatan Peninsula lowlands during the disintegration and collapse of the Maya civilization.
BC3 Seminars: The Global Change Assessment Model: An overview and future directions
BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, SpainDr. Pralit Patel
Joint Global Change Research Institute,College Park MD, USA
The Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) is an integrated assessment model with a long history initially focusing on Climate Change mitigation by reducing GHG emissions from the energy system. This model is under continual development to the Joint Global Change Research Institute in College Park, Maryland and has been made freely available and open source since 2011. The current version is 4.0 and is a global model that projects global energy use, land use, and the resulting emissions in 5 year increments until the end of the century.We start this seminar by briefly explaining the path along which the model has evolved focusing on what research questions we hoped to address. Share some of the significant projects the model has participated in: including being one of five integrated assessment models to participate in the IPCC’s RCP process, integrated earth systems model, the platform for regional integrated assessment modeling and analysis. Highlight some interesting recent findings: abundant natural gas, global water demands and scarcity. Finally we give some insights about the future directions of the modeling effort. These include expanding detail in China, spatially explicitly analysis, balancing water supplies and demands, and including more climate feedbacks.
BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: La demanda de electricidad de los hogares españoles durante la crisis: efectos sobre el bienestar
Dr. Desiderio Romero-Jordán,
Universidad Rey Juan Carlos y FUNCAS
La crisis económica y el rápido incremento de los precios de la electricidad han tenido importantes repercusiones sobre su demanda. Utilizando microdatos de la EPF, este trabajo analiza a partir de una regresión cuantílica los cambios en las respuestas a precios y renta ocurridos en el período 2006 a 2012 (distinguiendo los años previos a la crisis del resto). En segundo lugar se analizan los efectos del shock en precios sobre el bienestar de los hogares. Los resultados muestran el incremento del precio de la electricidad (junto a la crisis económica) ha acentuado tanto la forma de U de la elasticidad precio como la forma de N de la elasticidad renta. Los resultados sugieren además que las pérdidas relativas de bienestar generadas por el fuerte aumento de los precios son una función decreciente de la renta.
