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BC3 Seminar: An integrated approach for the estimation of agricultural drought costs
September 4, 2019 @ 12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
“An integrated approach for the estimation of agricultural drought costs”
Postdoctoral Researcher David García León
Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy.
Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics
This study proposes a novel method to assess the overall economic effects of agricultural droughts using a coupled agronomic-economic approach that accounts for the direct and indirect impacts of this hazard in the economy. This methodology is applied to Italy, where years showing different drought severity levels were analysed. Agricultural drought stress was measured using the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR). Using a comprehensive, field-level dataset on agricultural yields, fAPAR-based statistical models for major Italian crops were applied and direct crop productivity impacts were estimated. Local-level, crop-dependent productivity shocks were fed into a regionalised Computable General Equilibrium model specifically calibrated for the Italian economy. Direct and indirect aggregate impacts after allowing for inter-regional trade and input reallocation were obtained. Total estimated damages showed large spatial variability and ranged from 0.55 to 1.75 billion euro, depending on the overall drought severity experienced. Although most of the losses were concentrated on agriculture, other related sectors, such as food industry manufacturing and wholesale services, were also substantially affected. Moreover, our simulations indicated the presence of a land-use substitution effect from less to more drought-resistant crops following a drought. This study sheds light on the characterisation of the total damages caused by droughts and represents a valuable tool that can be used to implement country-wide drought risk management plans and to evaluate drought management policies.
About the Lecturer
I am a Marie Skłodowska-Curie Postdoctoral Fellow at the Ca’ Foscari University of Venice and Affiliated Researcher to the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), where I develop my MSCA-IF project WATER DROP (Droughts and Water Scarcity in the EU: Economic Impact, Adaptation, Policy Implications and Integrated Assessment Modelling).
Prior to joining Ca’ Foscari University, I was Post-doctoral Research Associate at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (Venice, Italy). Previously, I worked at the Research Department of the Bank of Spain, where I implemented GDP real-time forecasting tools and monitored euro area Member States fiscal policies. I received my PhD in Quantitative Economics at the University of Alicante (Spain) and obtained a Master’s Degree in Economics and Finance at CEMFI. I completed my undergraduate studies in Economics at the University of Murcia (Spain) and the Manchester Metropolitan University (UK).
Sede Building (Room Aketxe), Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, September 4 (2019), 12:00-13:00