BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Looking into the future of water and agriculture

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars
“Looking into the future of water and agriculture “

Seminar given by Dr. Ana Iglesias (Department of Agricultural Economics and Social Sciences, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain.)

Abstract

This presentation analyses the broad question of how climate change science may provide some insights about the future for agriculture. It presents and defends three assertions aimed at exploring the future of agriculture in a changing climate. (1) Understanding the uncertain impacts of climate change is useful for facing agricultural challenges. (2) Understanding and reducing vulnerability does not demand accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change. (3) It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds. Pressures on land and water resources are expected to intensify the existing risks in low latitude areas and in regions with current water scarcity, and create new opportunities in some northern temperate areas. We show that global change is a major source of uncertainty for today’s vulnerable societies and that adaptation to uncertain conditions is a challenge as climate change comes in conjunction with high development pressure, increasing populations, water management that is already facing conflicts and agricultural systems that are often not adapted (any more) to local conditions. These two aspects are evaluated across world regions to synthesise the reasons for concern for agriculture and provide some thoughts on policy development.