Assessing environmental and climate impacts of a dietary change with the global partial equilibrium bio-economic model, GLOBIOM

BC3 Seminars

Marta Kozicka

Research Scholar at the IIASA Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Research Group of the Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program (BNR)

Abstract:

GLobal BIOsphere Management model (GLOBIOM, Havlík et al. 2014), developed at IIASA is a global economic land use model covering the sectors of agriculture, forestry and bioenergy. GLOBIOM can be used to explore various trade-offs and synergies around land use, ecosystem services and socio-economic objectives. Some of the examples include assessment of linkages between food security and climate change impacts or climate mitigation measures compatible with the Paris Agreement (Frank et al. 2017; Fujimori et al. 2022; Hasegawa et al. 2018, Hasegawa et al. 2019). One of our recent studies (Kozicka et al., in review) investigates climate and biodiversity impacts of a global dietary shift with novel plant-based meat and milk alternatives. We link a global partial substitution of the main animal source foods (ASF) with their novel alternatives based on sets of alternative hypothetical plant-based ‘recipes’, designed to be nutritionally equivalent to the original products and relying on nutritionally and functionally realistic ingredients for global production. We find a substantial reduction in the environmental impacts by 2050 even if 50% of the main animal products is substituted – net reduction of forests and natural land is almost fully halted and agriculture and land use GHG emissions decline by 31% from 2020. If spared agricultural land is restored, climate benefits could double and trends in biodiversity reverse.

In the SWITCH HORIZON project “Switching diets for a just, healthy and sustainable dietary transition through knowledge and innovation”, in collaboration with i.a. BC3, we will develop and assess EU scenarios of food dietary patterns and environmental and socio-economic shifts.

About the Lecturer

Marta Kozicka is a Research Scholar at the IIASA Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF) Research Group of the Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program (BNR). She is an agricultural economist working on trade-offs and synergies between multiple objectives of sustainable development with a focus on diets and food security.