• It remains possible for all humans to escape poverty and be safe from harm caused by Earth system change – but the planet’s ability to provide and protect is being stretched past its limits.
• Scientists have identified the “Safe and Just Space” – the only space rich in opportunities – but future projections to 2050 show that this Space will shrink over time, driven by inequality, unless urgent transformations take place.
• The only way to provide for everyone and ensure societies, businesses and economies thrive without destabilising the planet is to reduce inequalities in how critical Earth system resources, such as freshwater and nutrients, are accessed and used – alongside economic and technological transformation.
• Cities and businesses can play a crucial role and become the stewards of our critical Earth systems. This paper provides a guide to how they can reduce their impact on the planet.

New research published today in The Lancet Planetary Health shows that the planet will only remain able to provide even a basic standard of living for everyone in the future if economic systems and technologies are dramatically transformed and critical resources are more fairly used, managed and shared.

The report is co-authored by over sixty leading natural and social scientists from the Earth Commission – an international science commission hosted by Future Earth, and the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance, with the participation of BC3. The report is led by Prof. Joyeeta Gupta, Prof. Xuemei Bai, and Prof. Diana Liverman and builds on the Safe and Just Earth System Boundaries published in Nature last year, which found that most of the vital limits within which people and the planet can thrive have been surpassed.

Findings: The Safe and Just Space is shrinking

 This new paper identifies the “Safe and Just Space” – within which harm to humans and nature can be minimised while everyone can be provided for – and sets out the paths to reach and stay in this Space.

The Earth System Boundaries published last year can be seen as the “ceiling” for human extraction of natural resources and pollution, within which the Earth systems can remain stable and resilient, and people can be safe from harm. Now, scientists have added a “foundation” by showing us what the global population needs from the Earth system, in order to live a life free from poverty. This is the first time scientists have quantified safety (a stable planet) and justice (people being protected from harm) in the same units – demonstrating that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. The paper builds on fundamental ideas of Earth System Justice, published in Nature Sustainability and Environmental Politics.

In this new work, the researchers made projections forwards to 2050, and found that the “Safe and Just Space” will shrink over time, unless urgent transformations are made. For climate specifically they found that, if significant changes aren’t made now, by 2050 there will be no Safe and Just Space left. That means that even if everyone on the planet only had access to the resources necessary for a basic standard of living in 2050, the Earth will still be outside the climate boundary. Earth systems face the risk of crossing dangerous tipping points which would cause further significant harm to people around the world – unless energy, food and urban systems are urgently transformed.

Noelia Zafra-Calvo, co-author of the study and researcher at BC3, highlighted: “We need to save at least 20% of natural habitat per km² in highly humanized territories and until 50-60% globally, to maintain the contributions of nature to our wellbeing (from food to mental health). It is very important to highlight, however, that people should not be excluded from natural areas when it is possible to live with nature without destroying it—e.g. Indigenous peoples and various local communities worldwide have often sustainably maintained largely natural and intact areas”.

They also found that inequalities and overconsumption of finite resources by a minority are key drivers of this shrinking. Providing minimum resources for those who don’t currently have enough would add much less pressure on the Earth system than that currently caused by the minority who use far greater resources.

The research also looked at where on the planet the Safe and Just boundaries have been breached, and overlayed this with people living in poverty who are exposed to harm from climate change, biodiversity loss, pollution and water shortages. The findings show that already vulnerable communities are often the most affected by Earth system change that impacts the health of people and ecosystems – but everyone, including the wealthy, is at risk.

 Joyeeta Gupta, former co-chair of the Earth Commission, and Professor of Environment and Development in the Global South at the University of Amsterdam, said: “We’re beginning to realise the damage that inequality is doing to the Earth. Increasing pollution and poor management of natural resources is causing significant harm to people and nature. The longer we continue to widen the gap between those who have too much and those who don’t have enough, the more extreme the consequences for all, as the support systems which underpin our way of life, our markets and our economies begin to collapse.”

Johan Rockström, co-chair of the Earth Commission, Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Professor in Earth System Science at the University of Potsdam, said: “For the first time, scientists have quantified safety and justice using the same units in order to determine the path forward to a stable and resilient future in which we can all thrive. This paper shows that justice is a prerequisite for the safety of the planet and people. It looks at the risk for further decline of the Earth system, the harm communities are experiencing as a result, but also seeks to identify how resources need to be fairly distributed. Communities, poor and rich, across the world are already vulnerable and will become more exposed – but we have a window to act now and change course.”

Wendy Broadgate, Executive Director for the Earth Commission and Global Hub Director at Future Earth, said: “Addressing justice must be at the heart of our response to the planetary crisis. We need to run our economies and societies differently to live within the Safe and Just Space. The Earth Commission’s work highlights living within the safe boundaries of the planet, and incorporating justice, is not possible without addressing inequalities and ensuring everyone has the essential resources for a dignified life. This paper – synthesised by 65 natural and social scientists from over 20 countries – provides a scientific foundation for the Safe and Just Space and the transformations that are required to reach it”.

 Urgent transformations required

The Safe and Just Space is the only remaining space rich in opportunities – in which people and the planet will remain able to thrive. To reach this space, the paper calls for change in three areas:

• Firstly, a well-coordinated, intentional effort between policymakers, businesses, civil society and communities can push for changes to how we run the economy and find new policies and funding mechanisms that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate.
• Secondly, fundamental to the transformation is more efficient and effective management, sharing and usage of resources at every level of society – including addressing the excess consumption of some communities which is limiting access to basic resources for those who need them the most.
• Thirdly, investment in sustainable and affordable technologies is essential to help us use fewer resources and to reopen the Safe and Just Space for all – particularly where there is little or no space left.

“These are profound transformations of our societies, requiring effective governance from local to global levels. We have the knowledge and the tools. This work illuminates that space where all people, businesses and economies can thrive on a healthy planet. Any efforts to protect the planet must take into account the needs of the millions of people that don’t even have access to the basics right now. Now decision makers need to implement policies and activities that can address inequality whilst reducing pressure on nature and climate”, said Diana Liverman, Regents Professor of Geography, Development and Environment, University of Arizona, member of the Earth Commission and co-lead of its transformations working group until 2023.

Businesses and cities in particular have a leading role to play in reducing the pressure on the planet. By operationalising the Earth system boundaries and using them as a basis for science-based targets, they can become better stewards of Earth’s natural resources.

Xuemei Bai, member of the Earth Commission, Distinguished Professor at Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, said: “Companies and cities have a huge potential to make a difference, especially if they work towards the same goal – ensuring the planet can provide for everyone long-term. They are nimbler and flexible than states, and can reduce their pressure on the planet by setting science-based targets in line with our findings.”

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Paper details:

Title: A just world on a safe planet: a Lancet Planetary Health–Earth Commission report on Earth-system boundaries, translations, and transformations

Link: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(24)00042-1/fulltext

Doi: https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(24)00042-1

Authors: Gupta, Joyeeta et al.