BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Implications of risk perceptions for long term future of nuclear energy in India: A sensitivity analysis around nuclear energy cost within an integrated assessment modeling framework

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars
“Implications of risk perceptions for long term future of nuclear energy in India: A sensitivity analysis around nuclear energy cost within an integrated assessment modeling framework “

Dr. Vaibhav Chaturved
Research Fellow at Council on Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi (India).

Abstract

Nuclear energy for power generation is expected to be a vital pillar of India’s energy and emission mitigation policy. However, there are divergent views from various quarters about the risk and liability associated with nuclear power plants. We undertake a cost sensitivity analysis, within an integrated assessment modeling framework, for nuclear power generation and present its implications for India’s energy and climate policy in the long run. We find that nuclear energy is competitive when risk induced costs are low under non-climate intervention scenarios. However nuclear energy deployment is seriously curtailed under higher risk induced costs. Consequently, fossil energy takes higher share, thus increasing the emissions substantially. Interestingly, nuclear liability off sets climate liability under climate policy scenarios. We find that nuclear energy is competitive, in the long-run, even under high risk induced costs if policies aiming at stringent global climate stabilization are pursued. Reaching emission mitigation targets however becomes much more expensive as a result of higher nuclear energy costs. Our results suggest need for credible risk assessment and more effective communication to reduce the risk perception gap between supporters and skeptics of nuclear energy to delineate an optimal role for nuclear technology in the Indian energy system.

Lecturer

Dr. Vaibhav Chaturved,  is currently working as Research Fellow at  Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), India. Prior to CEEW, he was with GCAM developers -the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), University of Maryland.  He holds a PhD in Economics from the Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, and Masters in Forest Management from the Indian Institute of Forest Management Bhopal. His research is focused on Indian and global energy and climate change mitigation policy issues- carbon dioxide emission stabilization pathways, low carbon and sustainable energy policies, modelling energy demand, and water-energy nexus within the integrated assessment modelling framework of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Vaibhav’s recent work includes analyzing climate policy-agriculture water interactions, transportation energy scenarios, model evaluation, investment implications for the global electricity sector, and modelling the building sector energy demand scenarios for India.

His recent publications:

1. Clarke L, Fawcett A, McFarland J, Weyant J, Zhou Y and Chaturvedi V. 2013. Technology and US Emissions reductions goals: Results of the EMF 24 modeling exercise. The Energy Journal
2. Chaturvedi V, Kim S, Smith S, Clarke L, Yuyu Z, Kyle P, Patel P. 2013. Model evaluation and hindcasting: A zero order experiment using an integrated assessment model. Energy
3. Chaturvedi V, Shukla PR. 2014. Role of energy efficiency in climate change mitigation policy for India: Assessment of co-benefits and opportunities within an integrated assessment modeling framework. Climatic Change.