BC3 Seminars: Modelling impacts of Ocean Acidification in fish catches and its economic implications

BC3 U Seminars
“Modelling impacts of Ocean Acidification in fish catches and its economic implications”

Jose A. Fernandes, MSc, PhD
Scientist (Bio-economic modeller)
Plymouth Marine Laboratory (Sea and Society) Prospect Place, The Hoe, Plymouth

Abstract

An assessment of the potential biological impacts and economic consequences of ocean warming and acidification is needed for sustainable ocean resources management. Here, we use new theory, observations, experiments and modelling to quantify (in terms of catches, monetary value and equivalent jobs) the combined effects of acidification and warming on commercial fish and shellfish under different CO2 emission scenarios. The UK is used as a case study area but the methods and key messages will be transferable across a broad range of settings. Incorporation of combined acidification and warming experimental data into the model scenarios consistently resulted in greater modelled changes than use of warming data alone. Shellfish species were impacted the most across the scenarios tested. This translates in a decrease in total potential landings in most UK administrative areas and particularly for the small vessels fleet. We also calculate the economic equivalent direct and indirect impacts in terms of income and jobs when using the results from this work projection considering the total fisheries related economy. The economic and social impacts could be further exacerbated in communities with economies highly dependent on fishing which are considered particularly vulnerable if there is a lack of a diversified economy.

Lecturer´s Biodata:

Jose A. Fernandes is Computer Engineer from the University of Deusto (Spain), MSc in Computer Systems Security from the University of Glamorgan (Wales). He has performed his PhD thesis at AZTI-Tecnalia fundation (Spain) in collaboration with the Department of Computer Science and AI at University of Basque Country (Spain) from 2007 to 2011. Ph.D. in the field of Supervised Classification applied to fisheries research, mainly in plankton automatic classification and probabilistic forecasting, focusing on develop machine learning methodologies to applied problems in marine science and ecological modelling. Part of his work has been on performing robust evaluation and selection of modelling methodologies. After working in University of Helsinki (Finland) in the FEM group performing water quality framework modelling, he moved to University of East Anglia (UK) working on bioclimate envelop models and integration of different models for long-term forecasting in the EURO-BASIN project. Now moving to a more holistic view looking at the impacts of climate change and human interaction in ecosystem services and its socio-economic consequences at Plymouth Marine Laboratory.

Lecturer´s web profile: http://www.sc.ehu.es/ccwbayes/members/jafernandes/

About the Lecturer´s research: http://www.researchgate.net/profile/Jose_Fernandes13/contributions/?ev=prf_act