BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars:Effects of international trade of food and feed and human diet shifts on food security and environmental safety: global and regional perspectives

BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain

Dr. Luis Lassaletta.

UMR Sisyphe, CNRS/Université Pierre et Marie Curie.Paris (France)

International trade of food and feed (expressed as protein content) has increased eightfold during the last 50 years. Nowadays a small number of countries are feeding the rest of the world. The population growth but also a change toward higher animal-protein diets are key drivers of the observed changes. The increasing dissociation between crops and livestock is producing a drop in the nutrient use efficiency at the global scale, and a rise in pollution problems. In Spain, a transition from the so-called Mediterranean diet to a diet with a very high share of animal protein, similar to North American and North European diets, is the main driver of a dramatic increase in nitrogen pollution. The huge production of animal products is fuelled by feed imports that today equal national crop production. Despite Spain also produces commodities for exportation, the net balance of N2O emissions of the agricultural system in 2009 indicated that the country is net-emitting abroad. A large part of the net N2O emissions is associated to imported agricultural goods coming from countries which are not committers for the Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol, and therefore emission leakage is occurring. Localization of vegetal and animal production, as well as control of the diet are key factors for world food security and environmental safety.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Coping with and Adapting to Global Change. Challenge for Society, Households and Individuals

Barbora Duzi
PhD Student, Global Change Research Centre The Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic

We investigated household adaptation strategies in the region frequently affected by climate extremes. We focused on impacts of extreme hydrological and meteorological events occurred since 1997 to 2012 at selected municipalities in the Morava river basin. The main research questions are: What is the state of adaptation measurements in households to climate extremes in the researched area? What are the population consequences to climate extremes for the last 15 years? Target area is located in selected parts of Morava river basin in the east part of the Czech Republic which is affected by annual floods or flash-floods, heavy rainfalls events and occasionally by mudslides. We apply mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods and case (pilot) study approach. We conducted in-depths interviews with relevant stakeholders, and the face-to face questionnaires with household residents in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. The population of interest was stratified by the level of the past exposure to floods (two or more times, one time, no exposure) in particular municipalities. Within each stratum a fixed quota of interviews is allocated. We recognized set of household-level coping and adaptation strategies such as terraces and elevated ground floor constructions, a complex hydro-isolation arrangements of the houses, any weather and landslides risks related insurance purchase, and resettlement and new building construction in no-risk area. Further we identified the consequences between the labour commuting and climate extremes.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Coping with and Adapting to Global Change. Challenge for Society, Households and Individuals

Barbora Duzi
PhD Student
Global Change Research Centre The Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic

We investigated household adaptation strategies in the region frequently affected by climate extremes. We focused on impacts of extreme hydrological and meteorological events occurred since 1997 to 2012 at selected municipalities in the Morava river basin. The main research questions are: What is the state of adaptation measurements in households to climate extremes in the researched area? What are the population consequences to climate extremes for the last 15 years? Target area is located in selected parts of Morava river basin in the east part of the Czech Republic which is affected by annual floods or flash-floods, heavy rainfalls events and occasionally by mudslides. We apply mixed qualitative and quantitative research methods and case (pilot) study approach. We conducted in-depths interviews with relevant stakeholders, and the face-to face questionnaires with household residents in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. The population of interest was stratified by the level of the past exposure to floods (two or more times, one time, no exposure) in particular municipalities. Within each stratum a fixed quota of interviews is allocated. We recognized set of household-level coping and adaptation strategies such as terraces and elevated ground floor constructions, a complex hydro-isolation arrangements of the houses, any weather and landslides risks related insurance purchase, and resettlement and new building construction in no-risk area. Further we identified the consequences between the labour commuting and climate extremes.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes and Population Consequences in Rural Areas in the Czech Republic

Dr. Robert Stojanov
Global Change
Research Center, The Academy of Sciences. Rep. Checa.

Presentation deals with socio-economic aspects of climate change, especially extreme weather events impacts on society. We also explores societal responses for such events in the form of coping, adaptation strategies, including threat of maladaptation. We focus on household level and examine how do residents perceive selected environmental issues and what are the main adaptation strategies to the selected climate change impacts and manifestations, such as droughts, floods and other natural extremes.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Household Adaptation Strategies to Climate Extremes and Population Consequences in Rural Areas in the Czech Republic

Robert Stojanov.

Dr. en Geografía Medioambiental. Global Change
Research Center, The Academy of Sciences. Rep. Checa.

Presentation deals with socio-economic aspects of climate change, especially extreme weather events impacts on society. We also explores societal responses for such events in the form of coping, adaptation strategies, including threat of maladaptation. We focus on household level and examine how do residents perceive selected environmental issues and what are the main adaptation strategies to the selected climate change impacts and manifestations, such as droughts, floods and other natural extremes.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Putting the break on belching ruminants: strategies to reduce methane emissions

BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain

Dr. David R. Yáñez-Ruiz
Animal Nutrition Institute (CSIC)

David R. Yáñez-Ruiz, Veterinary and Animal Nutritionist, graduated from Veterinary School, Córdoba University (Spain) in 1997. Dr. Yanez-Ruiz completed his phD in 2003 at Estacion Experimental del Zaidin (EEZ, Granada, Spain, CSIC), on the use of olive industry by-products in sheep and goats feeding.

In 2003 he started a 4 years post-doctoral work at the Institute of Rural Sciences (University of Wales Aberystwyth, UWA, UK) in Prof. JamieNewbold´s group, a world leading scientist in the rumen ecology field. His work focused on the study of the processes of lipid bio-hydrogenation and H2 transfer in the rumen, mainly CH4 production. Together with Prof Newbold they started a research program thorugh a Marie Curie Grant on the effect of early life dietary interventions on function of the microbial population in laterlife, focusing in the effect on CH4. In 2007 Dr. Yanez-Ruiz was appointed as research scientist at EEZ (CSIC) in the Animal Nutrition Department as rumen ecologist. He is Associate Editor in the Journal ‘Animal Production Science’ (CSIRO, Austrlia) from 2008, a top class Journal in the Agriculture field. He is co-author of 3 invited reviews published between 2008 and 2010 and has published over 45 peer review papers in top quality journals. Dr. Yanez-Ruiz is coordinator of a FP7 European project: SMEthane: Technological platform to develop nutritional additives to reduce methane emissions from ruminants (www.smethane.eu ) and is involved in other ongoing Europan projects: SOLID (www.solidairy.eu ), Glonal Network and Rumen Stability (both from FACCE-JPI program).

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Direct and Indirect CO2 Emissions of Households: A Dynamic Consumption Model in an Input-Output Framework

Prof. Kurt Kratena
Austrian Institute of Economic Research – WIFO.

This seminar will deal with the total CO2 impact of households in an input-output model for Austria with endogenous private consumption. The consumption model describes the demand for different durables and nondurables, derived from intertemporal optimisation and has been estimated econometrically. Energy demand of households in addition to economic variables also depends on the energy-efficiency as well as the level of energy-using durables. Total CO2 emissions are the sum of direct emissions from households (heating, vehicle use) and indirect CO2 emissions of production for households.
Policies with incentives to switch towards a more energy-efficient durable stock have a direct impact on energy consumption, as well as on the demand for other nondurables and durables and therefore cause indirect energy and emission effects. An ambitious scrappage policy scheme for heating appliances with a doubling of durable stock turnover might induce significant short-run indirect CO2 emission increases.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Assessment climate change adaptation policies for surface water availability in Mediterranean Europe

BC3-Basque Centre for Climate Change Sede Building 1, 1st floor, Scientific Park of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, Bizkaia, Spain

Prof. Luis Maria Garrote
Full Professor at the Technical University of Madrid (UPM)
Dept. of Civil Engineering; Hydraulic and Energy

Population growth, scarce water resources, climate change, environmental concerns and economic development are just a few of many factors that challenge water management in Southern Europe. Most climate models agree that Southern Europe will face a significant drying trend during the second half of the century, challenging water policy in the region to ensure future sustainability. In this seminar we discuss how much water demand might be met with future hydrologic regime from the policy perspective. We present a methodology to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy options to ensure adequate supply to irrigation demands. The methodology is based on the application of the WAAPA (Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Assessment) model, which performs the simulation of water resources systems at the monthly time scale and allows the estimation of the demand-reliability curve in every subbasin of the river network. The model was applied to 47 River Basin Districts in Southern Europe to estimate water availability under different climate change projections and several adaptation policy scenarios. The target of adaptation policy was defined in terms of maintaining an acceptable reliability of water supply to irrigation demands in future time horizons. Several possible options, like reducing irrigation
demands, increasing the efficiency of water use or changing the allocation to environmental flows were analyzed and compared in quantitative terms. The results show significant regional disparities in effectiveness of the different adaptation policies across Europe

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: How nuclear power plants in Spain have reacted to the introduction of renewable energy

Dr. Margaret Armstrong
Cerna, Centre d’Economie Industrielle MINES, ParisTech

The introduction of renewable energy (notably wind and solar power) into the energy mix in Europe is causing massive problems for traditional power companies. According to a recent issue of The Economist , the market capitalization of the top 20 European utilities has dropped by $1.3 trillion since 2008, with German companies being the most severely effected. E.ON’s income from conventional power generation (fossil fuels and nuclear) has fallen by more than 30% since 2010. In this paper we investigate what companies are doing to become more profitable. Our hypothesis is that traditional power producers have subtly changed their bidding strategies for selling electricity on the day-ahead and intraday markets. We test this hypothesis using the bids by nuclear power-plants to sell electricity on the Spanish day-ahead market over the period from 2002 to 2012. The Spanish market was chosen because the individual bids made by each producer are available to the public, making it possible to track the evolution in each power plant’s bidding strategy. Secondly, renewable energy accounts for 35% of the power generated in Spain, with windpower providing more than 18% . We chose to focus on nuclear plants because even though there are only 9 of them in Spain, they contribute about 20% of the electricity production.

BC3-UPV/EHU Seminars: Implications of risk perceptions for long term future of nuclear energy in India: A sensitivity analysis around nuclear energy cost within an integrated assessment modeling framework

Dr. Vaibhav Chaturved
Research Fellow at Council on Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi (India).

Nuclear energy for power generation is expected to be a vital pillar of India’s energy and emission mitigation policy. However, there are divergent views from various quarters about the risk and liability associated with nuclear power plants. We undertake a cost sensitivity analysis, within an integrated assessment modeling framework, for nuclear power generation and present its implications for India’s energy and climate policy in the long run. We find that nuclear energy is competitive when risk induced costs are low under non-climate intervention scenarios. However nuclear energy deployment is seriously curtailed under higher risk induced costs. Consequently, fossil energy takes higher share, thus increasing the emissions substantially. Interestingly, nuclear liability off sets climate liability under climate policy scenarios. We find that nuclear energy is competitive, in the long-run, even under high risk induced costs if policies aiming at stringent global climate stabilization are pursued. Reaching emission mitigation targets however becomes much more expensive as a result of higher nuclear energy costs. Our results suggest need for credible risk assessment and more effective communication to reduce the risk perception gap between supporters and skeptics of nuclear energy to delineate an optimal role for nuclear technology in the Indian energy system.